Daily Forecast

DATE: 08 Dec 2021, composed at 08:51 SAST

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Solar activity is low with background X-ray flux below B-class levels with occasional B-class flaring. There is one active region (AR2904) with simple magnetic complexity and multiple filaments visible on the solar disk. A CME observed on the 3rd of December missed Earth yesterday (07 December). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the past 24 hours. The solar wind speed is slightly elevated above background levels with speed ranging between 410 - 480 km/s. Geomagnetic activity is at quiet levels with isolated unsettled interval. Local HF working frequencies are near monthly average predicted values.

EVENTS: None.

OUTLOOK: Solar activity is expected to be low, with background X-ray flux at or below B-class levels. Low probability of minor flaring is expected. There is one active region (AR2904) visible on the solar disk with a simple configuration. The slightly elevated solar wind speed is expected to decrease to background in the next 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. There are now two potentially Earth-directed CMEs from filament eruptions. The first CME is expected to reach Earth on the 9th of December around 1800 UTC, but the confidence is low due to limited imagery available for analysis. The second CME will likely arrive at Earth with possible weak influence on the 10th of December around 0900 UTC. There is low confidence of possible minor G1 storm due to the expected arrival of the CMEs.


3-Day Predictions

Date2021-12-092021-12-102021-12-11
SSN111013
Se (WCI)15144
T-Index30 to 105/2930 to 105/2730 to 105/9
Activitylowlowlow
Qfe3.34.84.1
Ap5.010.08.0
Magnetic ConditionsQuietUnsettledQuiet to Unsettled
SA HF Commsfairfairfair
SW Fadeoutsunlikelyunlikelyunlikely
MUFunstableunstableunstable