DATE: 12 Jun 2025, composed at 07:46 SAST

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Solar activity was low with background X-ray flux at lower C-class levels. No significant flares were observed in the past 24 hours. There are nine sunspot regions on the visible solar disk with simple to complex magnetic configurations. The solar wind speed is at slightly elevated levels with speed ranging between 430-500 km/s due to the high-speed stream (HSS) influence from CH56/- (perhaps preceded by a CIR). There was a filament lift off observed from the southwest disk at ~11/17:40 UT. Further analysis will be done to determine for any potential Earth-directed CME component. There are several other filaments and prominences on the visible solar disk that appear unstable and will be monitored for any potential lift-offs. No new Earth-directed CMEs were observed on the coronagraph imagery during the past 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to G1/minor storm levels (Kp 2-5). Local HF working frequencies are near monthly predicted values.

EVENTS: A G1/Minor storm is in progress.

OUTLOOK: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate with background X-ray flux at C.-class levels. There are nine sunspot regions on the visible solar disk with simple to complex magnetic configurations. The probability for C-class flaring is high, low to moderate for M-class, and low for X-class. A CME associated with a filament eruption observed on 08 June is expected to give a glancing blow at Earth today (12 June), however, with low confidence. Solar wind speed is expected to remain at slightly elevated levels due to the continuous HSS influence of CH56/-. Further enhancement in the solar wind speed is expected should the abovementioned CME arrive. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at unsettled to G1/Minor storm levels (Kp 2-5). G2/Moderate storm intervals (Kp 6) are possible should the above HSS and CME influences combine.

SYSTEMS AFFECTED: HF Communications and GNSS applications.