Daily Forecast

DATE: 07 Dec 2022, composed at 07:55 SAST

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Solar activity is low with background X-ray flux at upper B-class levels. Several C-class flares were observed with the largest peak being a C1.1 at 06/21:42 UT originating from AR3157. There are seven sunspot regions (AR3153, AR3155, AR3156, AR3157, AR3158, AR3159, and AR3160) on the visible solar disk showing simple magnetic configurations. The solar wind speed is at background level with speed ranging between 320 – 410 km/s due to the waning effects of high-speed stream (HSS) from coronal hole 51 (CH51). There are a few filaments on the visible disk that appear to be unstable and will need to be monitored for any possible lift-offs. Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet levels. Local HF working frequencies are near monthly predicted values.

EVENTS: None.

OUTLOOK: Solar activity is expected to be low with background X-ray flux at B-class levels. There are seven sunspot regions on the visible solar disk with simple magnetic configurations. The probability for C-class flaring is high with a chance of isolated M-class flares. The solar wind speeds are in gradual decline due to the waning effects of CH51. An enhancement in solar wind speed is expected either on the 7th or the 8th due to HSS from the arrival of coronal hole 53 (CH53). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. There is a possibility of reaching active to G1/Minor storm due to the expected HSS.

SYSTEMS AFFECTED: GNSS and HF communication due to possible influence from G1/Minor storm and/or C-/M-class flare occurrences.



3-Day Predictions

Date2022-12-082022-12-092022-12-10
SSN969899
Se (WCI)9610396
T-Index30 to 105/8830 to 105/9330 to 105/81
Activitylowlowlow
Qfe7.04.43.3
Ap20.08.05.0
Magnetic ConditionsActiveQuiet to UnsettledQuiet
SA HF Commsfairfairfair
SW Fadeoutsunlikelyunlikelyunlikely
MUFunstableunstableunstable