Daily Forecast

DATE: 17 Mar 2025, composed at 07:28 SAST

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Solar activity is low with background X-ray flux at lower C-class levels. No significant flares were observed in the past 24 hours. Twelve sunspot regions are on the visible solar disk showing simple to slightly complex magnetic configurations. Solar wind speed is at background to slightly elevated levels with speed ranging between 400-460 km/s due to the waning HSS effects from CH22. There were CMEs associated with two filament lift-offs and will be analysed further for any Earth-directed components. Geomagnetic conditions are at quiet to unsettled levels (Kp 1-3). Local HF working frequencies are near monthly predicted values.

EVENTS: None.

OUTLOOK: Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels with background X-ray flux at C-class levels. Twelve sunspot regions are on the visible solar disk showing simple to slightly complex magnetic configurations. The probability for further C-class flaring is high, low to moderate for M-class and low for X-class. Solar wind speed is expected to continue gradually declining towards background levels today due to waning HSS influences. Speeds could become slightly elevated to elevated should the HSS from CH23 arrive. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels (Kp 1-3) today, with a chance for active to G1/Minor storm (Kp 4-5) intervals due to the abovementioned condition.

SYSTEMS AFFECTED: HF Communications and GNSS Applications.



3-Day Predictions

Date2025-03-182025-03-192025-03-20
SSN127132137
Se (WCI)132130137
T-Index30 to 105/10330 to 105/10530 to 105/91
Activitylowlowlow
Qfe5.74.44.2
Ap15.010.010.0
Magnetic ConditionsUnsettled to ActiveUnsettledUnsettled
SA HF Commsfairfairfair
SW Fadeoutsunlikelyunlikelyunlikely
MUFunstableunstableunstable