Daily Forecast

DATE: 02 Feb 2023, composed at 07:45 SAST

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Solar activity is low with background X-ray flux at upper B-class levels. A few C-class flares were observed during the past 24-hours, with the largest being a C5.8 observed at 01/22:49 UT from AR3204. There are five sunspot regions (AR3201, AR3204, AR3206, AR3207 and AR3208) on the visible solar disk showing simple magnetic configurations. There are a few large filaments on the visible solar disk that show movement and will be monitored for any possible lift-offs. Solar wind speed is slightly elevated above background levels with speed ranging between 420-440 km/s due to the onset of a high-speed stream (HSS) from coronal hole 73 (CH73). Geomagnetic conditions are at quiet to unsettled levels, with an isolated active interval. Local HF working frequencies are near monthly predicted values.

EVENTS: None.

OUTLOOK: Solar activity is expected to be low with background X-ray flux at B-class levels. There are five sunspot regions on the visible solar disk showing simple magnetic configurations. The probability for C-class flaring is high and low for M-class. Solar wind speed is expected to remain at slightly elevated levels as the HSS influence from CH73 persists. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels (Kp 0-3), with possible isolated active intervals (Kp 4).

SYSTEMS AFFECTED: None.



3-Day Predictions

Date2023-02-032023-02-042023-02-05
SSN888888
Se (WCI)878885
T-Index30 to 105/8430 to 105/8430 to 105/68
Activitylowlowlow
Qfe3.03.03.0
Ap5.05.05.0
Magnetic ConditionsQuietQuietQuiet
SA HF Commsfairfairfair
SW Fadeoutsunlikelyunlikelyunlikely
MUFunstableunstableunstable