Daily Forecast

DATE: 13 Sept 2024, composed at 07:48 SAST

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Solar activity was high with background X-ray flux at upper C-class levels. Several C and M-class flares were observed during the past 24 hours. The largest flare observed was an X1.28 at 12/09:46 UT from a new unnumbered region. There are seven sunspot regions on the visible solar disk showing simple to complex magnetic configurations. The solar wind speed reached strong levels with speed ranging between 500-610 km/s due to the continuous CME impacts. There are several filaments and prominences on the visible solar disk that show slight movement and will be monitored for any potential lift-offs. No confirmed Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery during the past 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions were at minor to moderate levels (Kp 5-6) and reached strong (Kp=7) isolated intervals. Local HF working frequencies are near monthly predicted values.

EVENTS: G1/Minor storm in progress.

OUTLOOK: Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high with background X-ray flux at upper C-class levels. There are seven sunspot regions on the visible solar disk showing simple to complex configurations. The probability for further C-class and M-class is high, but moderate for X-class flaring. Solar wind speed is expected to be at slightly elevated levels as the CME effects continue to wane. Geomagnetic conditions are initially anticipated to remain at G1/Minor storm levels (Kp= 5) but will decline to unsettled to active levels (Kp 3-4), with possible isolated G1/Minor intervals. Further enhancement is expected due to another CME arrival forecasted to arrive from tomorrow.

SYSTEMS AFFECTED: HF Communications and GNSS applications.